Wars in Syria and Afghanistan, an unpredictable president in America, Russia's power struggles and Islamist terror: Five dangers that will affect Germany in 2019.
The future is in the dark. Sometimes it seems easier to bring light into the darkness, sometimes it seems impossible. The international policy seemed predictable over long stretches of the East-West conflict. Then the wall fell. The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on 11 September 2001 threw row after row security forecasts. After that, the new pattern became predictable pretty quickly.
The situation today is neither the same nor the other. No single disruptive event shook the world in 2018, yet we live in troubled times. It is responsible for a series of incalculable, revolutionary and protracted developments and actors: an unleashed by all the opposing poles in his cabinet, an EU paralyzed by the Brexit chaos, a protectionism that slows down the global economy, the populists' everlasting triumphal march how mildew lays on western democracies. The list goes on.
In this overall situation, there are wars, conflicts and risks that will almost certainly occupy us in the coming year. This is not only because Germany has sat down for two years in the United Nations Security Council and the Chancellor in her New Year's speech (once again) has affirmed that our country wants to take more security responsibility. These five risks could affect us directly.
The American president has already said everything about the future of the transatlantic alliance. Nato was obsolete for him. Time important. But never a matter of the heart and always a financial burden. With the resignation of James Mattis as Secretary of Defense, which Trump brought forward to the end of 2018, the last transatlantic voice has turned its back on the American government from a European perspective. In his letter of resignation, Mattis Trump wrote in the studbook that America would become the sole global policeman without the Allies if China and Russia were not to replace him.
It remains to be seen whether Mattis' successor will be bound by the same transatlantic ideals and will continue to represent them in the event of a conflict with the president. It is clear that Trump no longer coordinates his security policy with his partners. This applies to the withdrawal plans from Syria as well as from Afghanistan. Of course, Europe does not have an alternative to America, and certainly not Germany. There is not only a lack of opportunities for decades, but also (always) the political will. In this respect, the hope remains that the American Congress knows how to contain the President.
The situation today is neither the same nor the other. No single disruptive event shook the world in 2018, yet we live in troubled times. It is responsible for a series of incalculable, revolutionary and protracted developments and actors: an unleashed by all the opposing poles in his cabinet, an EU paralyzed by the Brexit chaos, a protectionism that slows down the global economy, the populists' everlasting triumphal march how mildew lays on western democracies. The list goes on.
In this overall situation, there are wars, conflicts and risks that will almost certainly occupy us in the coming year. This is not only because Germany has sat down for two years in the United Nations Security Council and the Chancellor in her New Year's speech (once again) has affirmed that our country wants to take more security responsibility. These five risks could affect us directly.
The American president has already said everything about the future of the transatlantic alliance. Nato was obsolete for him. Time important. But never a matter of the heart and always a financial burden. With the resignation of James Mattis as Secretary of Defense, which Trump brought forward to the end of 2018, the last transatlantic voice has turned its back on the American government from a European perspective. In his letter of resignation, Mattis Trump wrote in the studbook that America would become the sole global policeman without the Allies if China and Russia were not to replace him.
It remains to be seen whether Mattis' successor will be bound by the same transatlantic ideals and will continue to represent them in the event of a conflict with the president. It is clear that Trump no longer coordinates his security policy with his partners. This applies to the withdrawal plans from Syria as well as from Afghanistan. Of course, Europe does not have an alternative to America, and certainly not Germany. There is not only a lack of opportunities for decades, but also (always) the political will. In this respect, the hope remains that the American Congress knows how to contain the President.
Commentaires
Enregistrer un commentaire